Tunisia’s Demographic Snapshot: A Balanced Society at a Critical Crossroads
Why Tunisia’s future depends less on numbers—and more on minds, ideas, and bold reforms
Based on a video by Tarek Cheniti
In a recent reflection on Tunisia’s demographic landscape, public policy expert Tarek Cheniti—currently working with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)—shares a grounded yet thought-provoking take on the latest figures from national surveys. While not a specialist in demography, Cheniti’s observations raise crucial points about Tunisia’s social, economic, and political trajectory.
A Controlled Growth
One of the first numbers that stands out is Tunisia’s population: 12 million. This confirms that the country has experienced relatively low natural growth in recent years—a fact Cheniti sees as positive. “We are not in a geographical zone capable of sustaining massive demographic expansion,” he notes, referencing Tunisia’s limited natural resources and the social stress that might follow unchecked growth.
In essence, Tunisia’s demographic evolution has remained "under control." This has spared the country the instability that comes with explosive population increases in vulnerable regions.
The Immigration Myth
Another key figure: only 0.55% of the population in Tunisia are foreigners. That’s roughly one foreigner for every 200 Tunisians. This reality dismantles the public perception—or perhaps the political narrative—that Tunisia is “under invasion” or losing its national identity due to immigration. “This is simply not true,” Cheniti says.
In fact, Tunisia is among the countries with one of the lowest percentages of foreign residents globally, making the current fears surrounding immigration highly exaggerated.
A Balanced Yet Aging Society
Currently, 17% of Tunisians are under 14 years of age—the same percentage as those over 60. This equilibrium presents both an opportunity and a warning. For now, Tunisia remains a young society with a median age of 35, but it is heading toward a future of gradual aging. Cheniti warns that the “golden age” of Tunisia’s demographic dividend is ending. Within the next decade, the population above 60 years old will rise to 20%, placing increased pressure on public systems and social care.
Fertility rates have also dropped to 1.8 children per woman, which is not catastrophic but reflects the same pattern seen across aging European societies.
Beyond Numbers: The Cultural Shift
What makes this trend more pronounced is the changing mindset of the younger generation. “People today don’t want to have more than one or two children—not because of state policies, but because of personal, financial, and social priorities,” Cheniti explains. He adds that unlike European nations, Tunisia doesn’t have the economic capacity to incentivize higher birth rates. Thus, relying on demographic growth as an engine for economic development is a dead end.
Instead, Cheniti proposes a new path forward: invest in creativity and intelligence rather than numbers. “You can have a society of 100 million and still be backward,” he says. “Or you can be a small nation and still lead in innovation and development.”
The AI Horizon
In the emerging age of artificial intelligence, what will matter most is not manpower but brainpower. “AI will replace many forms of labor. The future is about ideas and the ability to create,” he stresses. A forward-thinking national strategy should focus on preparing a society that thrives on innovation, research, and education, rather than one that merely reproduces itself.
A National Failure in Education
And yet, one statistic deeply troubles Cheniti: only 17% of Tunisians have attained the baccalaureate level of education. “That is a national failure,” he says bluntly. Compared to other African nations like Zimbabwe, Tunisia is falling behind—not in potential, but in the implementation of effective educational policy.
Especially alarming is the gender gap in education, with young men increasingly dropping out at higher rates than women. This imbalance threatens to create a society with entrenched inequalities and unbalanced economic participation.
Housing and Nature: The Overlooked Factors
Cheniti also touches on another overlooked issue: urban planning and quality of life. With 4 million homes, Tunisia should not be facing a housing crisis. Yet, urban congestion and a lack of green spaces have created environments that are detached from nature. “Trees and vegetables in front of your home are not luxuries—they are essentials,” he says.
It’s a subtle yet profound reminder that well-being isn’t just about GDP or job creation—it’s about creating livable, sustainable communities.
What’s Next?
Rather than chasing demographic growth or fearing immigration, Tunisia must focus on reforming its education system, reimagining its cities, and investing in its intellectual capital. The golden age may be fading, but a new one—built on innovation and resilience—is still possible.
“We’re not at the end,” Cheniti concludes. “We’re simply at a turning point. What we do next will determine the Tunisia of the future.”
About the author:
*Tarek Cheniti is a public policy expert and consultant with experience in governance, civic engagement, and social innovation. He currently works with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and contributes regularly to public discourse